Cotton prices dropped in Brazil in October. From September 28 to October 31, the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA)/ESALQ cotton Index, with payment in 8 days, dropped 7.67 per cent, closing at 2.9510 BRL per pound on October 31. The monthly average price, at 3.0750 BRL per pound, was 3.5 per cent lower than in September 2018.
During the month, trading pace was slow in the Brazilian spot market and most deals involved small amounts. Purchasers did not seem very interested in closing new trades, since they expect supply to increase and prices to drop in the coming weeks. Besides, heterogeneous quality among the batches supplied hampered sales in the spot too, CEPEA said in its latest fortnightly report on the cotton market.
Sellers, in turn, lowered asking prices even more, due to the lower quality of the cotton supplied, dollar drops against Real and Futures oscillations at ICE Futures (New York Stock Exchange), the report said.
According to data from the BBM (Brazilian Commodity Exchange) tabulated by CEPEA, 58.5 per cent of the 2017-18 Brazilian crop, estimated at 2.005 million tons, may have been traded until October 30. Of this total, 54.3 per cent was bought for use in the domestic market, 32.7 per cent for export to the international market and 13 per cent was flex contracts (exports with an option to the domestic market).
Regarding the 2018-19 crop, data indicate that at least 20 per cent of the output (forecast by Conab at 2.202 million tons, on average) has been traded – 54.9 per cent in the Brazilian market, 17 per cent for exports, and 28.2 per cent for flex contracts. (RKS)
譯文如下：
10月巴西棉花價(jià)格下跌超過(guò)7%
十月，巴西的棉花價(jià)格下跌。從9月28日至10月31日，應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)高級(jí)研究中心(CEPEA)/ESALQ棉花指數(shù)在8天內(nèi)下跌7.67%，10月31日收于每磅2.9510 雷亞爾。月平均價(jià)格為每磅3.0750 雷亞爾，比2018年9月下降3.5%。
本月，巴西現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)的交易速度較慢，多數(shù)交易涉及小額交易。買家似乎對(duì)成交新交易不感興趣，因?yàn)樗麄冾A(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾周供應(yīng)將增加，價(jià)格將下跌。此外，CEPEA在最近一份關(guān)于棉花市場(chǎng)的每?jī)芍軋?bào)告中表示，供貨批次的質(zhì)量參差不齊也阻礙了現(xiàn)場(chǎng)銷售。
該報(bào)告稱，由于棉花供應(yīng)質(zhì)量下降，賣方進(jìn)一步降低了要價(jià)，美元兌ICE期貨和現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格出現(xiàn)震蕩。
根據(jù)CEPEA制表的巴西商品交易所(BBM)的數(shù)據(jù)，在2017-2018年度巴西農(nóng)作物中，估計(jì)有20.05萬(wàn)噸的交易可能一直持續(xù)到10月30日。其中54.3%用于國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)，32.7%用于國(guó)際市場(chǎng)出口，13%為彈性合同(可選擇向國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)出售)。
關(guān)于2008 -2019年度的產(chǎn)量，數(shù)據(jù)顯示，至少20%的產(chǎn)量(Conab預(yù)測(cè)平均產(chǎn)量為220.2億噸)在巴西市場(chǎng)交易，占54.9%，其中出口占17%，彈性合同占28.2%。